Weekly Housing Market Monitor July 20-23
Existing-Home Sales Climb Record 20.7% in June Weekly Housing Market Monitor July 20-23
• Existing-home sales rebounded at a record pace in June, showing strong signs of a market turnaround after three straight months of sales declines caused by the ongoing pandemic.
• “The sales recovery is strong, as buyers were eager to purchase homes and properties that they had been eyeing during the shutdown,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist. “This revitalization looks to be sustainable for many months ahead as long as mortgage rates remain low and job gains continue.”
• The median existing-home price for all housing types in June was $295,300, up 3.5% from June 2019 ($285,400), as prices rose in every region. June’s national price increase marks 100 straight months of yearover-year gains.
• Total housing inventory at the end of June totaled 1.57 million units, up 1.3% from May, but still down 18.2% from one year ago (1.92 million). Unsold inventory sits at a 4.0-month supply at the current sales pace, down from both 4.8 months in May and from the 4.3-month figure recorded in June 2019.
• Read the full news release here.
First-time Buyer Market Share Rose to 35% as Investor Share Declined to 9% Weekly Housing Market Monitor
• With mortgage rates trending in the low 3%, firsttime buyers were responsible for 35% of sales in June, up from 34% in May 2020 (35% in June 2019), based on transactions reported by Realtors® in the monthly Realtors® Confidence Index survey. NAR’s 2019 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers reported that the annual share of firsttime buyers was 33%.
• Meanwhile, individual investors or second-home buyers purchased 9% of homes in June, down from 14% in May 2020 (10% in June 2019). Rent payment difficulties and the yet uncertain replacement (if any) of the $600 additional unemployment insurance benefit in July 31 may be giving Individual investors pause to enter the market at this time.
• As the share of investors declined, all-cash sales transactions also declined to 16% of all transactions in June, down from 17% in May 2020 (16% in June 2019).
• Read the full news release here.
Contract Signings Rose 16% in the Past Four Weeks Ended July 19 from One Year Ago *
However, new listings during the 4-week period ended July 16 were still 4% below last year’s level. Still, this is still a notable improvement compared to the 41% decline in listings during the 4-week periods of April 26 and May 3.
Weekly Housing Market Monitor
Preliminary information from multiple listing services shows a sustained increase in housing transactions as of July 19. The opening up of most businesses in all states, low 30-year fixed mortgage rates that reached a historic low of 2.98% as of the week of July 16, and 7.5 million net new payroll job gains in May and June are all sustaining the housing market recovery.
* Preliminary data based on a limited number of MLS
New listings are sold nearly at the same pace, with 9.5 new pending contracts for every 10 new listings in the past four weeks ended July 19. Contract signings (pending sales) during the past four weeks ended July 16 were up 16% from one year ago, sustaining the prior week’s pace of growth.
Contract Signings During July 1-19 Rose in the All Regions Except the West
• Contracts signed (pending sales) during July 1―19 were up 4% from the level one year ago ,the same pace during July 1 — 13.
• Contracts signed increased at the strongest pace in the South (9%) and the Midwest (8%). In the Northeast, contracts signed also increased (2%), a turnaround from the year-over-year decline in June. Only in the West region did contracts signed during July―19 decrease compared to the level one year ago (-5%).
• Eighty-five percent of 164 metro areas tracked by NAR had an increase in new contract signings in the past four weeks ended July 19, 2020, compared to one year ago.
New Listings during July 1—19 Remain Below Year-ago Levels in All Regions Weekly Housing Market Monitor
• New listings are not rising as fast as new contract signings. During July 1—19, new listings were down by 8% from the level one year ago, a larger rate of decline compared to the y/y decline July 1—13 (-5%).
• Listings were down from one year ago in all regions, with a larger pace of decline compared to the decline during July 1—13, especially in the West.
• The decline in new listings as new pending contracts are increasing will create upward price pressure if listings don’t start rising.
30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates Fell Below 3% in the Week of July 16
• The 30-year mortgage rate fell to a historic low of 2.98% in the week of July 16.
• In the month of June, Freddie Mac reported that the 30-year fixed contract mortgage rate averaged 3.16%.
• In June, the mortgage payment (principal and interest) on a single-family home purchased at the median sales price of $298,000 was $1,036, down from $1,031 one year ago, but slightly up from $1,003 in May. The median sales price of single-family homes rose 3.5% year-over-year in June.
Mobility and Social Engagement Improved Slightly in the Week of July 18
• Mobility and social engagement slightly improved during the week of July 18, according to the Dallas Federal Reserve Board’s Mobility and Engagement Index, an index that compares the level of mobility and engagement based on geolocation data of cell phone devices compared to the level during January 3—March 1. In the week ended July 20, the MEI registered at -41.64 (-43.39 in the week of July 11).
• Compared to the pre-coronavirus period, mobility and engagement have declined the most Texas (-55.78), New Jersey (-53.57), Minnesota (- 52.36), and Maryland (-50.85).
• Public interest in open houses has decreased last week by 43% compared to a year ago. However, the interest for open houses is trending upwards in the last three of months. At local level, interest remains strong in Connecticut, Montana and North Dakota.
For more information on recent trends in your metro area, see the Local Market Reports. NAR Research produces the Local Market Reports (LMRs) quarterly, which provide insights into the fundamentals and direction of the nation's largest metropolitan housing markets.
Weekly Housing Market Monitor NAR Member Profile: Techonology
• 74% of REALTORS® reported having a website for business use.
• For professional use, REALTORS® were typically most active on Facebook, LinkedIn, and Instagram over other professional networking websites.
• The method through which REALTORS® prefer to communicate with clients was text messaging (94%), followed by email (91%), and over the telephone (89%).
• For the highlights, click here.
• For the full report, click here.